Models in the Media

Communicating Epidemiological Models in the Time of Covid-19

During the COVID-19 outbreak, epidemiological models have acquired unprecedented prominence in public and popular discourse. Modelling has been widely used to frame and justify the government’s response to the pandemic, and has been at the centre of public debate about how citizens as well as experts should respond. Traditional and new media have been abuzz with experts and non-experts alike discussing the validity of different models and the need to “flatten the curve”.

The overt adoption of epidemiological models to explain strategies of pandemic response and motivate public action raises urgent questions about how medical science is communicated, particularly via mass media.

How clearly and accurately are epidemiological models represented and interpreted in traditional and new media?
How do modellers communicate the uncertainties inherent in predictive modelling, and how is this translated in the media?
How do policy makers use models during the COVID-19 outbreak to explain and justify their actions and proposals; how closely does this conform to modellers’ own views; and how do modellers respond?
How are differences between models and their implications presented and played out in the media, and how are those differences received?
How does the public representation and reception of epidemiological models develop over time, as early predictions are confirmed or corrected by the gradual accumulation of contemporary evidence?
What does public discourse around epidemiological models tell us about public trust and the role of scientific argument in motivating and directing population-wide behaviour change?

To answer these questions, this project undertakes a narrative review of the epidemiological debates around predictive modelling of COVID-19, an analysis of UK print and social media, including Twitter. The proposed research brings sociologists of science into dialogue with epidemiologists and science communicators, with a view to understanding the social and cultural impacts of COVID-19 in a robust and theoretically-informed way. Drawing on established approaches in Science & Technology Studies (STS), it will bring this accumulated learning to the service of better understanding the successes and challenges of the UK’s response to COVID-19.